See the Market. See the Future.

A Punctuated Equilibrium: Artificial Intelligence in the Modern Company

Tuesday, Nov 20, 2018

It’s increasingly clear that we’re entering a highly disruptive extinction event. Many new and unanticipated enterprises will emerge. New business models will be created. Enterprises will be transformed, and those that fail to transform will cease to exist. The existential threat is exceeded only by the opportunity. – Tom Siebel, Founder, C3 IoT

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Overweight and Heavily Positioned Stocks fared worse than Underweight Stocks during October’s recent Market Turbulence

Friday, Nov 2, 2018

“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.”  This little nugget of wisdom from all-time investing great Warren Buffett has never been more true than in the recent bout of market turbulence during one of the worst Octobers in market history in which the S&P lost -7.4%, wiping out most of the gains for the year, while the Nasdaq took it on the chin, dropping almost -13%. It was a month to remember as most sectors across the board were obliterated, sparing nobody in the market’s path to destruction.  In general, the most heavily positioned stocks saw a larger decline on a volatility-weighted basis than the more underweight stocks that the market held very few active positions.  We looked at CrowdThnk positioning scores greater than a score of 8 to represent overweight stocks while stocks with scores less than 2 represent underweight stocks.

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How Negative Gamma Works and Why It’s Impacting the Market

Wednesday, Oct 24, 2018

Have you been wondering what has been causing violent gyrations in the stock market over the past week? Why does it have a record down day followed by a massive up day only to be reversed the very next day?  Look no further than the pervasive Negative Gamma held by many investors in the stock market. Caused primarily due to Massive Put Option Selling by market participants, this is the fundamental cause behind the whiplashes as the market yo-yo’s between one extreme and another.

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10 Largest Positioning Liquidations in the Stock Market - October 2018 Update

Tuesday, Oct 16, 2018

Knowing large positioning changes is very important in identifying the next trading opportunity, as some might be fundamental-driven and thus lasting longer while others might be tactical-driven and therefore short-lived. Following the recent stock market sell-off, our team took a look at the top 10 biggest positioning liquidations according to CrowdThnk’s consensus positioning measure.

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Navigating Financial Markets with Artificial Intelligence Tools:  A Look Inside Alternative Data Companies Creating Alpha in a Data-Driven World

Wednesday, Oct 10, 2018

The world is awash in data.  Every single day, exponentially more data points are being generated.  It is said that over 90% of the world’s data has been created in just the past 2 years.  Given the breadth and depth of data that is available at one’s fingerprints, it’s up to investors to decide what to do with the data. As the investment world, like much of the rest of the world, matures with the cutting-edge technology coming from Artificial Intelligence, new strategies and ways of harvesting alpha may triumph over the tried-and-true investment approaches of yesteryear.  In a world driven by AI, data has become the oil that powers the AI engine.  With cloud computing, increased computing power and an abundance of storage, Alternative Data companies have sprung up to fuel this data-driven engine, creating innovative and cutting-edge data sets.  As an Alternative Data vendor ourselves and in order to take an inside look at what some of these Alternative Data providers are doing in the financial markets, the CrowdThnk team participated in the Battlefin Conference in London in September, sponsored by Jefferies Bank.   Here is a recap of some of the leading Alternative Data providers in the Investment Industry with a brief description of each:

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Tesla’s Positioning Swings Continue to Confound Investors but Creates Opportunities to Profit

Thursday, Sep 20, 2018

While their eccentric CEO creates regular, market-moving headlines, Tesla’s (TSLA) stock has traded in a wide, but predictable range between $250 and $380 for the past 2 years, confounding investors ranging from short speculators to ardent bulls.  While still viewed as a startup company (albeit highly valued one), Tesla has been prone to severe market gyrations from short squeezes to painful sell-offs as market positioning, measured by CrowdThnk, continues to oscillate amongst extremes.   However, the one predictable facet of Tesla’s stock price action is that extremes in market positioning typically beget a reversal in price action.  That is, when market positioning becomes overweight or underweight to a significant extent, TSLA tends to change direction.  The most interest part of this phenomenon is the reliability with which one is able to forecast the future direction of the stock given Tesla’s historical CrowdThnk Positioning Scores.

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CrowdThnk measures & quantifies stock market consensus positioning to provide clients with data-driven insights and actionable analytics. Using Crowdsourced data and Big Data Analytics, we aggregate & assess consensus market positioning and use Machine Learning to forecast future market direction for over 500 stocks. Our process is built to help investors achieve a market edge and boost investment performance by Harnessing the Wisdom of Crowds.

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